A MULTIDIMENSIONAL ASSESSMENT OF FRANCE’S VULNERABILITY TO MARITIME TRADE

Pierre Cariou, Nadine KAFA

Abstract


Recent disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic, security incidents in the Red Sea, and water shortages in the Panama Canal have revealed how dependent are countries and industries on maritime shipping routes. Yet systematic, data-driven assessments of national vulnerability to maritime disruptions remain limited. This study develops a multidimensional conceptual and empirical framework for assessing maritime trade vulnerability. It distinguishes three complementary dimensions captured by a Logistics Exposure Index (LEI), a Commercial Exposure Index (CEI), and a Cost-Value Sensitivity Index (CVSI) respectively. These indicators are integrated into a composite Maritime Supply-Chain Vulnerability Index (MSCVI) which summarizes the structural fragility of a country to maritime trade networks. Using a dataset for France comprising information on more than 826,790 trade flows for 93 products from 2016 to 2021, the analysis reveals that maritime vulnerability is widespread but uneven: roughly half of the 93 products imported and exported fall within high or critical vulnerability categories. Manufactured goods, ores, works of art, and live animals show particularly elevated risk due to overlapping exposure channels. 

Keywords


Vulnerabilty, Maritime, Trade, France

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References


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DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21622/MARLOG.2026.15.1.74

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The International Maritime Transport and Logistics Journal (MARLOG)

E-ISSN: 2974-3141
P-ISSN: 2974-3133

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Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT)

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