Numerical Prediction of the Potential Tsunami Wave Heights and Inundation Zones for the Coastal Region of Alexandria, Egypt

Mohamed M. Abouelnasr, Akram S. Elselmy

Abstract


The escalating susceptibility of Mediterranean coastal communities to tsunami threats necessitates the implementation of comprehensive, data-informed solutions that connect coastal modelling with effective risk reduction. This work utilizes high-resolution numerical simulations to assess the effects of tsunamis produced by various seismic return periods on Alexandria and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The study employs a scenario-based methodology to quantify essential tsunami parameters, including wave height, flood extent, withdrawal amplitudes, and current velocities, for earthquake magnitudes between Mw 7.15 and Mw 8.5. The findings indicate a nonlinear increase in hazard intensity with rising magnitude, resulting in extreme situations where flood areas reach 114 km2 and current speeds approach 20 m/s. These findings reveal possible shortcomings in current planning frameworks that emphasize moderate return periods while neglecting the catastrophic possibility of low-probability, high-impact occurrences. The study advocates for a paradigm shift in coastal infrastructure development, asserting that design standards and zoning rules must be adjusted to account for both probable situations and worst-case estimates. Moreover, it promotes the incorporation of early warning indicators, such as substantial sea withdrawals. The suggested techniques are not solely technical solutions but integral to a comprehensive vision for safeguarding Alexandria from severe coastal threats. This study advances a novel approach to coastal risk management that is proactive, inclusive, and grounded on scientific coastal principles. 

Keywords


Alexandria, ComMIT, Numerical Modelling, Mediterranean, Tsunami Simulation.

Full Text:

PDF

References


M. V. R. Murthy, T. Usha, Y. Pari, and N. T. Reddy, “Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Cuddalore Using Numerical Model and GIS,” Marine Geodesy, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 16-28, Feb. 2011.

M. A. Ferreira, C. S. Oliveira, and R. Francisco, “Tsunami risk mitigation: the role of evacuation routes, preparedness and urban planning,” Nat Hazards, vol. 121, no. 6, pp. 6719-6751, Apr. 2025.

K. Goda, S. Li, N. Mori, and T. Yasuda, “Probabilistic Tsunami Damage Assessment Considering Stochastic Source Models: Application to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake,” Coastal Engineering Journal, vol. 57, no. 3, pp. 1550015-1-1550015-38, Sept. 2015.

K. Goda and J. Song, “Uncertainty modeling and visualization for tsunami hazard and risk mapping: a case study for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,” Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, vol. 30, no. 8, pp. 2271-2285, Dec. 2016.

P. González-Riancho, I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, I. Aniel-Quiroga, S. Abad, M. González, J. Larreynaga, F. Gavidia, O. Q. Gutiérrez, J. A. Álvarez-Gómez, and R. Medina, “Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 3249-3270, Dec. 2013.

J. H. Williams, T. M. Wilson, L. Wotherspoon, R. Paulik, E. M. Lane, N. Horspool, A. Weir, M. W. Hughes, M. R. Schoenfeld, D. Brannigan, A. Chalmers, and P. Elliot, “Tsunami damage and post-event disruption assessment of road and electricity infrastructure: A collaborative multi- agency approach in Ōtautahi Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, vol. 72, p. 102841, Apr. 2022.

L. Pashova, L. Dimitrova, E. Oynakov, and V. Galabov, “Tsunami vulnerability along the western Bulgarian Black Sea coast - from the historical review towards multidisciplinary assessment approach,” 04-Mar-2021. .

Y. Dilek, Y. Ogawa, and Y. Okubo, “Characterization of modern and historical seismic-tsunamic events and their global-societal impacts,” SP, vol. 501, no. 1, pp. 1-22, Jan. 2021.

M. M. E. Abou-Mahmoud, “Assessing coastal susceptibility to sea-level rise in Alexandria, Egypt,” Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Research, vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 133-141, 2021.

H. Badreldin, H. Hassan, F. Romanelli, M. El-Hadidy, and M. N. ElGabry, “Joint Multi- Scenario-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Alexandria, Egypt,” Applied Sciences (Switzerland), vol. 14, no. 24, 2024.

S. Eckert, R. Jelínek, G. Zeug, and E. Krausmann, “Remote sensing-based assessment of tsunami vulnerability and risk in Alexandria, Egypt,” Applied Geography, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 714-723, 2012.

S. Eckert and G. Zeug, “Assessing Tsunami vulnerability in Alexandria, Egypt by using optical VHR satellite data,” 2009, pp. 539-542.

M. M. El-Hattab, S. A. Mohamed, and M. El-Raey, “Potential tsunami risk assessment to the city of Alexandria, Egypt,” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, vol. 190, no. 9, 2018.

A. El-Sayed, F. Romanelli, and G. Panza, “Recent seismicity and realistic waveforms modeling to reduce the ambiguities about the 1303 seismic activity in Egypt,” Tectonophysics, vol. 328, no. 3-4, pp. 341-357, 2000.

S. Garziglia, M. Ioulalen, S. Migeon, E. Ducassou, J. Mascle, O. Sardou, and L. Brosolo, “Triggering factors and tsunamigenic potential of a large submarine mass failure on the western Nile margin (Rosetta Area, Egypt),” 2007, pp. 347-355.

A. Hamouda, M. Hassan, and S. El-Gharabawy, “Enhancing tsunami resilience and evacuation strategies: A case study of coastal disaster preparedness and heritage protection of the Bibliotheca Alexandrina area,” Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Research, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 366-375, 2024.

A. Z. Hamouda, “Numerical computations of 1303 tsunamigenic propagation towards Alexandria, Egyptian Coast,” Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol. 44, no. 1, pp. 37-44, 2006.

A. Z. Hamouda, “A reanalysis of the AD 365 tsunami impact along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast,” Acta Geophysica, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 687-704, 2010.

A. Z. Hamouda, S. M. El-Gharabawy, A. Fekry, M. A. Nassar, and M. Salah, “Subsidence model of the ancient Alexandria Royal port linked to sea-level rise and natural hazards using integrated geophysical methods,” Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Research, vol. 47, no. 3, pp. 283-292, 2021.

H. M. Hassan, C. Frischknecht, M. N. ElGabry, H. Hussein, and M. ElWazir, “Tsunami hazard and risk assessment for Alexandria (Egypt) based on the maximum credible earthquake,” Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol. 162, 2020.

S. A. Mohamed, “Coastal vulnerability assessment using GIS-Based multicriteria analysis of Alexandria-northwestern Nile Delta, Egypt,” Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol. 163, 2020.

G. Pagnoni, A. Armigliato, and S. Tinti, “Scenario-based assessment of buildings’ damage and population exposure due to earthquake-induced tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 15, no. 12, pp. 2669-2695, 2015.

A. Salama, M. Meghraoui, M. ElGabry, S. Maouche, M. Hussein, and I. Korrat, “Paleotsunami deposits along the coast of Egypt correlate with historical earthquake records of eastern Mediterranean,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 18, no. 8, pp. 2203-2219, 2018.

M. A. Seddeek and M. M. Elsayed, “From Regional to Local Level: An Integrated Planning Framework for Cities Facing Tsunami Risk - Alexandria Case, Egypt,” Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 2230-2245, 2022.

S. C. Stiros, “Was Alexandria (Egypt) destroyed in A.D. 365? A famous historical tsunami revisited,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 91, no. 5, pp. 2662-2673, 2020.

M. Torab and N. Dalal, “Natural hazards mapping of mega sea waves on the northwest coast of Egypt,” Elsevier Science Ltd., 2024, pp. 409-416.

F. A. T. Laksono, M. Mishra, u. Fadlin, and J. Kovács, “Exploring the tsunami generation potential of major faults in the sicilian channel using 3D numerical modeling,” Ocean Modelling, vol. 199, 2026.

E. M. Bonilauri, C. Aaron, M. Cerminara, R. Paris, T. Esposti Ongaro, B. Calusi, D. Mangione, and A. J. L. Harris, “Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide- Triggered tsunamis: An integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 24, no. 11, pp. 3789-3813, 2024.

A. Abbate, G. Davies, S. Lorito, N. Kalligeris, F. Romano, R. Tonini, and M. Volpe, “Importance sampling of seismic tsunami sources with near-field emphasis for inundation PTHA: benchmarking with complete ensembles,” Geophysical Journal International, vol. 241, no. 1, pp. 155-169, 2025.

M. Abouelnasr, “Qualitative Numerical Statistical Analysis of the Extreme Wave Characteristics for Dubai Maritime City,” p. 2551416 Bytes, 2020.

M. Abouelnasr, “Extracted and Enhanced dataset of Mediterranean Sea Bathymetry for Numerical Modeling.” Harvard Dataverse, 2022.

M. Abouelnasr, “Dataset of prediction and mitigation process for coastal natural hazards for Alexandria, Egypt.” [object Object], p. 3133096 Bytes, 2024.

M. Abouelnasr, “Dataset of prediction and mitigation process for the coastal natural hazards for Alexandria, Egypt.” Mendeley Data, 21-Feb-2024.

L. Amir and A. Cisternas, “Appraisal of the 1790 Alboran tsunami source in the west Mediterranean sea as inferred from numerical modelling: Insights for the tsunami hazard in Algeria,” 2010, vol. 6, pp. 4937-4945.

S. Assier-Rzadkiewicz, P. Heinrich, P. C. Sabatier, B. Savoye, and J. F. Bourillet, “Numerical modelling of a landslide-generated tsunami: The 1979 nice event,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, vol. 157, no. 10, pp. 1707-1727, 2000.

L. Borzì, P. Scala, S. Distefano, F. X. A. T. Laksono, G. Manno, S. Innangi, F. Gamberi, J. Kovács, G. Ciraolo, and A. Di Stefano, “Tsunami propagation and flooding maps: An application for the Island of Lampedusa, Sicily Channel, Italy,” Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, vol. 49, no. 14, pp. 4842-4861, 2024.

M. Bubalo, I. Janeković, and M. Orlic, “Meteotsunami-related flooding and drying: numerical modeling of four Adriatic events,” Natural Hazards, vol. 106, no. 2, pp. 1365-1382, 2021.

C. Cecioni, G. Bellotti, P. De Girolamo, and L. FRANCO, “Full frequency dispersive numerical modelling of tsunamis. large scale application to the south tyrrhenian sea,” presented at the Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference, 2009, pp. 1337-1347.

A. C. Demetracopoulos, C. Hadjitheodorou, and J. A. Antonopoulos, “Statistical and numerical analysis of tsunami wave heights in confined waters,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 629-643, 1994.

A. Z. Hamouda, “Worst scenarios of tsunami effects along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt,” Marine Geophysical Research, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 197-214, 2010.

P. Heinrich, A. Dupont, M. Menager, A. Trilla, A. Gailler, B. Delouis, and H. H́ebert, “Simulation of the Mediterranean tsunami generated by the Mw 6.0 event offshore Bejaia (Algeria) on 18 March 2021,” Geophysical Journal International, vol. 237, no. 3, pp. 1400-1413, 2024.

A. Janin, M. Rodriguez, D. Sakellariou, V. Lykousis, and C. Gorini, “Tsunamigenic potential of a Holocene submarine landslide along the North Anatolian Fault (northern Aegean Sea, off Thasos island): Insights from numerical modelling,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 121-136, 2019.

S. Le Roy, R. Pedreros, D. Monfort-Climent, and M. Terrier, “Numerical tsunamis simulations on the French Mediterranean coast: The case of Antibes,” Houille Blanche, no. 6, pp. 12-20, 2015.

M. Masina, R. Archetti, and A. Lamberti, “21 may 2003 boumerdès earthquake: Numerical investigations of the rupture mechanism effects on the induced tsunami and its impact in harbors,” Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, vol. 8, no. 11, pp. 1-48, 2020.

G. Paliaga, S. N. Ward, F. Luino, F. Francesco, and L. Turconi, “What If an Intense Rain Event Should Trigger Diffuse Shallow Landslides in a Small Mediterranean Catchment? Numerical Modeling Through Remote Sensing Techniques,” Remote Sensing, vol. 16, no. 24, 2024.

B. R. Röbke, H. Schüttrumpf, and A. Vött, “Effects of different boundary conditions and palaeotopographies on the onshore response of tsunamis in a numerical model - A case study from western Greece,” Continental Shelf Research, vol. 124, pp. 182-199, 2016.

B. R. Röbke, A. Vött, T. Willershäuser, P. Fischer, and H. Hadler, “Considering coastal palaeogeographical changes in a numerical tsunami model - A progressive base to compare simulation results with field traces from three coastal settings in western Greece,” Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, vol. 59, pp. 157-188, 2015.

J. Šepić, A. B. Rabinovich, and V. N. Sytov, “Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, vol. 175, no. 4, pp. 1545-1572, 2018.

E. Storrøsten, N. Ragu Ramalingam, S. Lorito, M. Volpe, C. Sánchez-Linares, F. Løvholt, and S. J. Gibbons, “Machine learning emulation of high resolution inundation maps,” Geophysical Journal International, vol. 238, no. 1, pp. 382-399, 2024.

G.-A. Tselentis, G. Stavrakakis, E. Sokos, F. Gkika, and A. Serpetsidaki, “Tsunami hazard assessment in the Ionian Sea due to potential tsunamogenic sources - Results from numerical simulations,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 1021-1030, 2010.

M. Ulvrová, R. Paris, K. Kelfoun, and P. Nomikou, “Numerical simulations of tsunamis generated by underwater volcanic explosions at Karymskoye lake (Kamchatka, Russia) and Kolumbo volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece),” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 401-412, 2014.

I. Vilibic̈, S. Monserrat, A. Rabinovich, and H. Mihanovic̈, “Numerical modelling of the destructive meteotsunami of 15 June, 2006 on the coast of the Balearic Islands,” presented at the Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2008, vol. 165, no. 11-12, pp. 2169-2195.

S. Yolsal-Cevikbilen and T. Taymaz, “Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Tectonophysics, vol. 536-537, pp. 61-100, 2012.

A. I. Zaitsev, A. Y. Babeyko, A. A. Kurkin, A. C. Yalçıner, and E. N. Pelinovsky, “Tsunami Hazard Assessment on the Egyptian Coast of the Mediterranean,” Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, vol. 55, no. 5, pp. 462-469, 2019.

F. Zaniboni, G. Pagnoni, G. Gallotti, M. Paparo, A. Armigliato, and S. Tinti, “Assessment of the 1783 Scilla landslide-tsunami’s effects on the Calabrian and Sicilian coasts through numerical modeling,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 19, no. 8, pp. 1585-1600, 2019.

F. Zaniboni, G. Pagnoni, S. Tinti, M. Della Seta, P. Fredi, E. Marotta, and G. Orsi, “The potential failure of Monte Nuovo at Ischia Island (Southern Italy): Numerical assessment of a likely induced tsunami and its effects on a densely inhabited area,” Bulletin of Volcanology, vol. 75, no. 11, pp. 1-13, 2013.

M. Abouelnasr, “Raw Dataset for offshore Hindcast Waves data for 17 Ports along the Mediterranean Sea.” Mendeley, 03-Jan-2023.

F. X. A. T. Laksono, M. Mishra, B. Mulyana, and J. Kovács, “Exploring the Mediterranean tsunami research landscape: scientometric insights and future prospects,” Geoenvironmental Disasters, vol. 11, no. 1, 2024.

J. M. Abril and R. Periáñez, “A modelling study on tsunami propagation in the Red Sea: Historical events, potential hazards and spectral analysis,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 134, pp. 1- 12, Apr. 2017.

A. Joseph, Tsunamis: Detection, Monitoring, and Early-Warning Technologies. Elsevier, 2011.

C. Finkl, “A Review of Potential Tsunami Impacts to the Suez Canal,” Journal of Coastal Research, vol. 28, no. 4, p. 745, May 2012.

M. S. Mohd Tahir, R. Mustapha, M. E. A. H. Hashim, N. Mohd Razalli, and A. Kleebrung, “Merging the Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Maritime Industry: A Systematic Literature Review,” J. Adv. Res. Appl. Sci. Eng. Tech., pp. 19-34, Oct. 2024.

C. Chlomoudis, A. Konstantinou, P. Kostagiolas, and P. Pallis, “Information needs and information-seeking behaviour of maritime students: a systematic literature review using the PRISMA method,” LM, vol. 43, no. 5, pp. 353-369, Apr. 2022.

F. Bojić, A. Gudelj, and R. Bošnjak, “Port-Related Shipping Gas Emissions-A Systematic Review of Research,” Applied Sciences, vol. 12, no. 7, p. 3603, Apr. 2022.

R. Abudu and R. Bridgelall, “Autonomous Ships: A Thematic Review,” World, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 276-292, Apr. 2024.

G. Kodak, “Investigation of the Use of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Techniques in Maritime Studies With Prisma Method,” Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 510- 521, Dec. 2023.

A. Paraskevas, M. Madas, V. Zeimpekis, and K. Fouskas, “Smart Ports in Industry 4.0: A Systematic Literature Review,” Logistics, vol. 8, no. 1, p. 28, Mar. 2024.

M. J. Page, J. E. McKenzie, P. M. Bossuyt, I. Boutron, T. C. Hoffmann, C. D. Mulrow, L. Shamseer, J. M. Tetzlaff, E. A. Akl, S. E. Brennan, R. Chou, J. Glanville, J. M. Grimshaw, A. Hróbjartsson, M. M. Lalu, T. Li, E. W. Loder, E. Mayo-Wilson, S. McDonald, L. A. McGuinness, L. A. Stewart, J. Thomas, A. C. Tricco, V. A. Welch, P. Whiting, and D. Moher, “The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews,” BMJ, p. n71, Mar. 2021.

Elsevier, “ScienceDirect.com: Science, health and medical journals, full text articles and books.,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/. [Accessed: 01-Sept-2025].

Elsevier, “Scopus: A comprehensive abstract and citation database for impact makers,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com. [Accessed: 01-Sept-2025].

M. AASTMT, “The international Maritime Transport and Logistics Conference - AASTMT,” The international Maritime Transport and Logistics Conference - AASTMT, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://marlog.aast.edu/en/home.

A. Z. Hamouda, “A reanalysis of the AD 365 tsunami impact along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast,” Acta Geophys., vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 687-704, Aug. 2010.

A. Rizzo, G. Mattei, L. Dumon Steenssens, M. Anzidei, P. P. C. Aucelli, T. Alberti, F. Antonioli, A. Bezzi, D. Bonaldo, and G. Fontolan, “Methodological advances in sea level rise vulnerability assessment: implications for sustainable coastal management in a climate change scenario,” Ocean and Coastal Management, vol. 268, 2025.

M. Abouelnasr and A. Elselmy, “Medicanes and its Metrological Effects in the Mediterranean Sea: Case Study of Medicane Ianos,” MARLOG 13 Conference, vol. 13, no. 1, p. 273, 2024.

M. Abouelnasr, “Deformation and Stability Analysis of Double-Wall Vertical Breakwaters for Earthquake Return Periods,” International Journal of Innovations in Engineering Research and Technology, vol. 7, no. 09, pp. 125-130, 2020.

M. Abouelnasr, “Future Proof Infrastructure for Port-City: Case Study for the Sustainability of Suez Canal Entrance Groins Against Future Extreme Wave Conditions,” MARLOG 12 Conference, vol. 1, no. 12, p. 174, Mar. 2023.

A. El-Sayed, F. Romanelli, and G. Panza, “Recent seismicity and realistic waveforms modeling to reduce the ambiguities about the 1303 seismic activity in Egypt,” Tectonophysics, vol. 328, no. 3-4, pp. 341-357, Dec. 2000.

A. Fekry and A. Hamouda, “Hydrographic Surveys as an Art of Delineating the Impact of Climate Change on the Coastal Environment,” MARLOG 11 Conference, vol. 11, no. 1, p. 99, 2022.

A. Hamouda, “A re-analysis of the AD 365 tsunami impact along the Egyptian coast,” 2007, vol. 1, pp. 269-282.

M. B. Sørensen, M. Spada, A. Babeyko, S. Wiemer, and G. Grünthal, “Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 117, no. B1, p. 2010JB008169, Jan. 2012.

S. J. Gibbons, S. Lorito, J. Macías, F. Løvholt, J. Selva, M. Volpe, C. Sánchez-Linares, A. Babeyko, B. Brizuela, A. Cirella, M. J. Castro, M. De La Asunción, P. Lanucara, S. Glimsdal, M. C. Lorenzino, M. Nazaria, L. Pizzimenti, F. Romano, A. Scala, R. Tonini, J. Manuel González Vida, and M. Vöge, “Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: High Performance Computing for Massive Scale Inundation Simulations,” Front. Earth Sci., vol. 8, p. 591549, Dec. 2020.

Ι. Triantafyllou, G. A. Papadopoulos, and A. Kijko, “Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Impact Records: Mediterranean and Connected Seas,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, vol. 180, no. 5, pp. 1785-1809, 2023.

A. Grezio, M. Anzidei, A. Armigliato, E. Baglione, A. Maramai, J. Selva, M. Taroni, A. Vecchio, and F. Zaniboni, “Tsunami hazard and risk in the Mediterranean Sea,” Elsevier, 2024, pp. 397- 415.

U.S. Geological Survey, “Lists, Maps, and Statistics - U.S. Geological Survey.” [Online]. Available: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics. [Accessed: 01-Sept-2025].

P. Albini, M. Locati, A. Rovida, and M. Stucchi, “European Archive of Historical EArthquake Data (AHEAD).” Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), p. About 250 data sources, About 5000 earthquakes, About 3800 set of macroseismic intensity data points, About 70000 macroseismic intensity data points, 24-Jan-2013.

G. A. Papadopoulos and A. Vassilopoulou, “Historical and Archaeological Evidence of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Felt in the Kythira Strait, Greece,” in Tsunami Research at the End of a Critical Decade, vol. 18, G. T. Hebenstreit, Ed. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2001, pp. 119-138.

D. M. Seal, A. Nowicki Jessee, and M. W. Hamburger, “Comprehensive Global Database of Earthquake-Induced Landslide Events and Their Impacts.” U.S. Geological Survey, 2020.

A. Ganas and T. Parsons, “Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 114, no. B6, p. 2008JB005599, June 2009.

L. Gasperini, M. Stucchi, V. Cedro, M. Meghraoui, G. Ucarkus, and A. Polonia, “Active fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault system in the Sea of Marmara: implication for seismic hazard,” Med. Geosc. Rev., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 29-44, Mar. 2021.

M. Palano, A. Ursino, S. Spampinato, F. Sparacino, A. Polonia, and L. Gasperini, “Crustal deformation, active tectonics and seismic potential in the Sicily Channel (Central Mediterranean), along the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary,” Sci Rep, vol. 10, no. 1, p. 21238, Dec. 2020.

Y. D. Kuiper, A. Michard, E. Ruellan, C. S. Holm-Denoma, and J. L. Crowley, “New petrographic and U-Pb geochronology data from the Mazagan Escarpment, offshore Morocco: Support for an African origin,” Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol. 181, p. 104249, Sept. 2021.

X. Le Pichon, A. M. C. Şengör, J. Kende, C. İmren, P. Henry, C. Grall, and H. Karabulut, “Propagation of a strike-slip plate boundary within an extensional environment: the westward propagation of the North Anatolian Fault,” Can. J. Earth Sci., vol. 53, no. 11, pp. 1416-1439, Nov. 2016.

M. Liu, X. Cui, and F. Liu, “Cenozoic rifting and volcanism in eastern China: a mantle dynamic link to the Indo-Asian collision?,” Tectonophysics, vol. 393, no. 1-4, pp. 29-42, Nov. 2004.

R. Lin, A. Vesnaver, G. Böhm, and J. M. Carcione, “Erratum for the paper: ‘Broadband Q factor imaging by seismic tomography and instantaneous frequency,’” Geophysical Journal International, vol. 229, no. 2, pp. 898-899, Jan. 2022.

S. Lorito, M. M. Tiberti, R. Basili, A. Piatanesi, and G. Valensise, “Earthquake‐generated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenarios of potential threats to Southern Italy,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 113, no. B1, p. 2007JB004943, Jan. 2008.

O. E. Frihy, K. M. Dewidar, and M. M. El Raey, “Evaluation of coastal problems at Alexandria, Egypt,” Ocean & Coastal Management, vol. 30, no. 2-3, pp. 281-295, Jan. 1996.

O. Frihy, S. Mohamed, D. Abdalla, and M. El-Hattab, “Assessment of natural coastal hazards at Alexandria/Nile Delta interface, Egypt,” Environ Earth Sci, vol. 80, no. 1, p. 3, Jan. 2021.

H. M. Hassan, C. Frischknecht, M. N. ElGabry, H. Hussein, and M. ElWazir, “Tsunami hazard and risk assessment for Alexandria (Egypt) based on the maximum credible earthquake,” Journal of African Earth Sciences, vol. 162, p. 103735, Feb. 2020.

Y. Z. Kamh, M. A. Khalifa, and A. N. El-Bahrawy, “Comparative Study of Community Resilience in Mega Coastal Cities Threatened by Sea Level Rise: The Case of Alexandria and Jakarta,” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, vol. 216, pp. 503-517, Jan. 2016.

G. Pagnoni, A. Armigliato, and S. Tinti, “Scenario-based assessment of buildings’ damage and population exposure due to earthquake-induced tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 15, no. 12, pp. 2669-2695, Dec. 2015.

S. C. Stiros, “Was Alexandria (Egypt) Destroyed in A.D. 365? A Famous Historical Tsunami Revisited,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 91, no. 5, pp. 2662-2673, Sept. 2020.

B. L. Valle, N. Kalligeris, A. N. Findikakis, E. A. Okal, L. Melilla, and C. E. Synolakis, “Plausible megathrust tsunamis in the eastern Mediterranean Sea,” Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering and Computational Mechanics, vol. 167, no. 3, pp. 99-105, Sept. 2014.

G. Wöppelmann, G. Le Cozannet, M. De Michele, D. Raucoules, A. Cazenave, M. Garcin, S. Hanson, M. Marcos, and A. Santamaría‐Gómez, “Is land subsidence increasing the exposure to sea level rise in Alexandria, Egypt?,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, no. 12, pp. 2953- 2957, June 2013.

DHI, “MIKE 21 Spectral Waves FM,” DHI, The Netherlands, User Guide, 2017.

DHI, “MIKE ZERO EVA,” DHI, The Netherlands, User Guide MIKE ZERO Extreme Value Anaysis, 2019.

M. Abouelnasr, “Qualitative Numerical Statistical Analysis of the Extreme Wave Characteristics for Dubai Maritime City,” International Journal of Innovations in Engineering Research and Technology, vol. 7, no. 10, p. 2551416 Bytes, 2021.

GEBCO Bathymetric Compilation Group 2025, “The GEBCO_2025 Grid - a continuous terrain model for oceans and land at 15 arc-second intervals.” NERC EDS British Oceanographic Data Centre NOC, 2025.

NSF OpenTopography Facility, “Global Bathymetry and Topography at 15 Arc Sec: SRTM15+V2.0.” NSF OpenTopography Facility, 2019.

B. Tozer, D. T. Sandwell, W. H. F. Smith, C. Olson, J. R. Beale, and P. Wessel, “Global Bathymetry and Topography at 15 Arc Sec: SRTM15+,” Earth and Space Science, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 1847-1864, Oct. 2019.

M. Abouelnasr, “Extracted and Enhanced Dataset for Mediterranean Sea Shoreline.” Harvard Dataverse, 2022.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “ComMIT (COMmunity Model Interface for Tsunami).” [Online]. Available: https://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/ComMIT/background.html. [Accessed: 01-Sept-2025].

V. V. Titov, C. W. Moore, D. J. M. Greenslade, C. Pattiaratchi, R. Badal, C. E. Synolakis, and U. Kânoğlu, “A New Tool for Inundation Modeling: Community Modeling Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT),” Pure Appl. Geophys., vol. 168, no. 11, pp. 2121-2131, Nov. 2011.

Y. Okada, “Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 75, no. 4, pp. 1135-1154, Aug. 1985.

V. Titov, U. Kânoğlu, and C. Synolakis, “Development of MOST for Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting,” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng., vol. 142, no. 6, p. 03116004, Nov. 2016.

USGS National Earthquake Information Center, “USGS National Earthquake Information Center - M 6.0 - 20 km SSE of Fry, Greece,” Earthquake Hazards Program, May-2025. [Online]. Available: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pz2p/executive. [Accessed: 15-Oct-2025].

National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Alexandria, Egypt, University of Balearic Islands, Spain, and UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), “Sea Level Station Monitoring Facility Database.” Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS).

A. Grezio, M. Anzidei, E. Baglione, B. Brizuela, P. Di Manna, J. Selva, M. Taroni, R. Tonini, and A. Vecchio, “Including sea-level rise and vertical land movements in probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean Sea,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, no. 1, 2024.

G. A. Papadopoulos and I. Triantafyllou, “A Revision of Historical Earthquakes in the Ionian Sea, Greece: Island of Lefkada,” GeoHazards, vol. 6, no. 1, 2025.




DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21622/MARLOG.2026.15.1.69

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2026 Mohamed M. Abouelnasr, Akram S. Elselmy

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

The International Maritime Transport and Logistics Journal (MARLOG)

E-ISSN: 2974-3141
P-ISSN: 2974-3133

Published by:

Academy Publishing Center (APC)

Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT)

Alexandria, Egypt