A model for assessing urban resilience of coastal areas against natural flooding risk

Shady Hafez Gemaila, Abdullah Farouk Al‑Attar, Hesham Mohamed El‑Barmelgy

Abstract


Since the beginning of the 21st century, coastal areas worldwide have witnessed an accelerated severity and high frequency of natural disasters. Although coastal areas represent 15% of the inhabited areas, they host more than 60% of the world’s population. This contradiction between the high population density and the sensitive eco-system of such areas places high pressure on resources and raises the vulnerability against risks in those areas associated with natural flooding of storms and tsunamis. Consequently, there is a pressing need to understand, investigate, and address the dynamics of coastal areas. The paper aims to propose a model to assess the resilience of urban coastal areas against natural flooding risks. Employing an inductive research methodology, the parameters of both the Egyptian coastal urbanism and the natural flooding risk are analyzed and studied to define the UT-NFR (Urban Typology due to Natural Flooding Risk) Model. The model comprises three main stages: (a) identifying risk of community pattern, (b) identifying risk of urban pattern, and (c) calculating the UT-NFR index. The model is challenged by the limited methods to determine the impact of urban environment on the natural flooding risk, adding to the entire descriptive methods for classifying urban areas in Egypt. Based on a comparative study of three international cases selected due to their compatibility with Egypt, a set of indicators to identify the parameters of the Egyptian urbanism at coastal areas is initially deducted. The final list includes 58% of the deducted indicators valid to act as a proactive tool to predict the degree of urban resilience for the new Egyptian coastal developments. Additionally, the model is valid to define the resilience degree and detect the deficiencies of the existing coastal development offering effective mechanisms to enhance the ability to promote the required contingency preparations.

 

Received: 12 June 2025

Accepted: 20 August 2025

Published: 28 September 2025


Keywords


Coastal Floods; Resilient Urbanism; Digital Tools; and Egyptian Communities.

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References


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DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21622/resd.2025.11.2.1430

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Copyright (c) 2025 Shady Hafez Gemaila, Abdullah Farouk Al‑Attar, Hesham Mohamed El‑Barmelgy

Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development

E-ISSN: 2356-8569

P-ISSN: 2356-8518

 

Published by:

Academy Publishing Center (APC)

Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT)

Alexandria, Egypt

resd@aast.edu