An empirical analysis of net-zero emission targets of Canada and the European Union

Martin J. Bush

Abstract


 

This analysis examines the emission trajectories of Canada and the EU27 that purportedly lead to a point of net zero emissions of greenhouse gases in 2050. It is shown that a country’s emission intensities are limited by a lower bound which effectively restricts the reduction to greenhouse gas emissions to a level moderated by a country’s GDP per capita. For Canada, the proposed path to net zero emissions is shown to be technically feasible, but dependent on the deployment of a suite of engineered negative emission technologies none of which have been demonstrated at scale. In the case of the EU27, it is shown that the proposed path to a condition of net zero emissions in 2050 is not a plausible scenario and that emissions of greenhouse gases in that year are likely to be more than three times higher than the level projected by the European Commission.

 

Received on, 07 March 2025

Accepted on, 10 April 2025

Published on, 27 April 2025


Keywords


Net zero emissions, Residual emissions, Energy intensity, Negative emission technologies, Kaya Identity, Canada emissions, EU emissions

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References


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DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21622/MACI.2025.02.1.1252

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Multidisciplinary Adaptive Climate Insights

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P-ISSN: 3009-7924

 

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